After a vivid financial crisis in our country, not much time has passed, people still remember the massive reductions, lower salaries and price hikes for everything. The troubles lasted a long time, yielding to the returning crisis waves, adding to the difficulties of the population. Analysts around the world have said more than once that the financial turmoil has not finally ended and that large states should expect a repeat. The world economic crisis of 2019-2020 has already been predicted, the economy will feel its impact. However, it is more important for people to know how this will affect them, and not some GDP, etc.
Restrained assumptions on the world situation in 2019-2020
Bart Melek, a TD Securities strategist specializing in commodity markets, suggested that the price of a barrel of oil in 2019 would be above $ 60. His forecast came true, so Mr. Melek’s version of the gradual economic recovery and the residual echoes of the crisis deserves attention. Also in this version of the development of events, an increase in the cost of other raw materials, including non-ferrous and precious metals, is expected. The financial world will survive some difficulties, but later the situation will begin to improve.
Similar forecasts are provided by other analysts. They do not argue about the positive development of world economic trends, but speak only of timid growth attempts in the conditions of a precrisis state. The echoes of previous financial shocks by the dying wave continue to affect citizens of different countries, so there is no need to talk about an active increase in wealth. This is more like stabilization, not promising any noticeable improvements in the near future. Pluses will be visible only in the long term, but do not forget that we are talking about the opinion of several analysts, and not about an already accomplished economic fact.
Many are interested in when there will be a crisis according to the World Bank (WB) and how much they predict major problems. WB analysts note a low probability of crisis manifestations in the period 2019-2020. Many EU countries, Russia, Canada, China and the United States are still showing economic growth, although weaker than in previous years. This does not mean that the crisis will bypass the world, but it will happen later and will have a scenario different from 2008. On the other hand, WB experts note the fact that the 2008 crisis was also preceded by a situation with a drop in economic growth in developed and largest countries.
Interesting! According to forecasts, economic growth in Russia will be from 2.7 to 2.9% for 2019. In previous 2017 and 2018. growth reached 3%. The decrease in pace is one of the pre-crisis signs not only on the world stage, but also testifies to so far small difficulties in the country itself.
A certain part of analysts from different countries is inclined to believe that positive changes are not worth waiting for, but the coming years will not bring much negative either. There will be crisis waves, but the power will not be very expressive, which will allow most states to relatively readily reorganize into a new functioning mode. Only unstable countries filled with internal unrest will remain under attack.
Unfavorable forecasts for the world economy
Trying to predict whether a crisis in some countries will be fatal, analysts around the world are divided into several groups. A whole galaxy of economists argues that in 2019-2020 we should expect a global crisis similar to the one taking place in 2008. However, there is a milder version - the crisis will be similar, but its effect will last less.
Mr. Razuvaev looks at the financial world somewhat unusual. He suggested that Trump will not actively try to minimize the impact of the crisis, which could potentially provoke a “collapse of the dollar world” with subsequent restructuring of US debt and the emergence of new currency zones. In particular, Alexander Razuvaev suggested that the emergence of a single currency in a new zone uniting Canada, the United States and Mexico is likely. The director of the Alpari department put forward his opinion on the world cost of oil - $ 30-35. This will lead to a recession in the USA, Russia and other countries. Razuvaev is almost certain that the crisis of 2019 cannot be avoided by all the largest states in the world that are closely involved in global market relations.
Worth to know! A number of sociologists and economists have dubbed the upcoming financial condition of the world "supercrisis." According to their forecasts, some countries will overtake social unrest, and some states will face food shortages. The latter is hard to believe, although the likelihood of reducing the variety of products sold is quite possible.
Negatively minded financiers note a high probability of a large-scale crisis due to pronounced political instability and noticeable failures in the stock market. They also not only predict when there will be another wave of crisis, but also where. Specialists from different countries distinguish Russia, EU states, Turkey, Brazil and Argentina among probable “crisis applicants”.
Economic development of Russia in 2019-2020
Despite the serious consequences of the dependence of the economy on the cost of oil, getting away from this situation is quite difficult. Russia is still a commodity country, although some steps for change have been taken. On the other hand, if the forecasts made by various analysts of the world begin to come true, then our country will again experience a powerful economic failure, because remains pegged to the price of "black gold".
Vnesheconombank (VEB) as early as 2017 presented several forecast options for global economic trends and, on the basis of this, suggested ways of Russia's development. Forecasts were made taking into account the cyclical factor of the world economy, suggesting a repetition of growth spikes and sharp drops. Also considered were the damping factors of world crises, which have the property of repeating peaks of growth and depression, but with less pronounced features.
In the basic version of the scenario for the development of the country's economy for 2019-2020 from VEB, it is assumed that in 2019 the price of oil will reach $ 55 per barrel, and in 2020 - $ 57. The beginning of 2019 exceeded the baseline scenario, so a group of economists, including Andrei Klepach, switched to an optimistic option, implying a further increase in the cost of oil and other raw materials. This will lead to economic growth in Russia and other countries, including relative stabilization in the United States. Although the situation will not last long - the cyclical nature of the crisis will overtake all countries of the world, but the degree of negative impact is expected to be milder.
Some experts continue to scare Russia with commodity sanctions, saying that for our country this will become a kind of test. Several years have passed since the start of the sanctions, the joint efforts of the authorities and entrepreneurs eliminated the shortage of some goods. In particular, orchards have grown over the years, perfectly replacing apples imported from Poland. There are a lot of such examples, only a part of consumer goods cannot be replaced by a full-fledged analogue. Therefore, ordinary citizens are hardly worth fearing the loss of the quality of life on the part of the usual product range. Even if sanctions are imposed, only small groups of Russian residents will feel them.
Financiers of different countries agree on one thing - the global economic crisis of 2019-2020 will be. Whether the difference is whether it will pass like a mild cold or it will be a serious fever of the world community with various political, economic and other complications. However, predicting whether there will be a crisis all over the world or only in Russia, one thing can be said - our economy is unstable, therefore it is better to be alert.