The circumstances that determine the value of Gazprom shares in the next 2020 will depend on what kind of dividend policy this company will pursue. If you use any methods and tools that allow you to pay a profit of less than 50% of the value of the stock, this will lead to a decrease in the attractiveness of securities.
According to experts, this state of affairs cannot continue indefinitely. The company has already exhausted all its capabilities in order to prevent this. However, Gazprom plans to launch some capital-intensive projects, which will lead to a reduction in investments.
At the same time, potential investors will see a clear increase in attractiveness for their investments. This will lead to investing in Gazprom shares in 2020.
Present market instability
Today, the concern accounts for 10% of the country's market. In the European market, this figure is 35%. As for export issues, the company is a confident monopolist in Russia, and it simply does not have competitors in this regard. However, according to experts, good times for this company have already passed. It is no longer necessary to wait for what happened in 2008. The oil price in those days rose sharply, which led to a sharp jump in the price of Gazprom shares. Of course, at that time the company was making grandiose plans for profit. However, high indicators were not achieved. And the reason for this was that oil prices fell sharply.
At the same time, a significant decrease in Gazprom capitalization began to be noted. The price per share was only 100 rubles. Since 2008, it has been possible to stabilize a little, but it is unlikely to be able to achieve high indicators, as in the past.
The situation was further aggravated by the appearance on the market of another powerful Novatek company. In the past 2018, she demonstrated such indicators, which Gazprom representatives were extremely surprised at.
The new market participant even managed to jump over Gazprom in some respects. And they achieved all this against the background of more modest production indicators and with a much smaller number of assets.
The situation in which a state corporation is clearly downward is due to the use of non-core and non-profitable assets. Meanwhile, the state uses it as a "wallet" when money is needed to implement various projects.
Gazprom stock price forecast for 2020
When making forecasts regarding Gazprom shares for 2020, it is necessary to take into account the extent to which it incurs capital costs. Over the past year, they amounted to almost three tens of billions of rubles, which is significantly higher than in 2017. Experts believe that this is a kind of peak. Then the costs should be gradually reduced.
At the same time, growth in operating cash flow is expected in the next 2020. Even taking into account the large amounts of debt payments, it can be assumed that Gazprom will have the resources to pay dividends.
According to experts, Gazprom shares will begin active growth at the end of 2019, continue to grow in 2020, and by the summer of 2020 they will grow 6 times.
Thus, buying shares of this company is now ...
Why to buy?
The forecasts of some analysts are more pessimistic. It is expected to increase capitalization in the coming year. And this, in turn, will empty the dividend portfolio. It is unlikely that he will quickly recover later. Realizing the planned projects, Gazprom plans to attract partners in order to share costs with them.
Nature of prospects and risks
If global gas consumption is increasing, and its production in Europe is declining, then there is an increase in the attractiveness of Gazprom. But we must not forget that along with gas production, electricity production is also increasing. And this also leads to an increase in demand. The increase in export volumes leads to increased attractiveness in terms of dividends. This applies to potential investors.
Negatively affect the value of stocks can rising oil prices. It is assumed that their growth will be observed over the next few years. If they still decline, then the attractiveness of stocks will increase. This circumstance will provide growing dividends. Of course, this will not pass by investors.
The threat of reducing the attractiveness of stocks lies in the possibility of tax changes in the direction of increasing tax deductions. If taxes increase, the attractiveness of stocks will decrease.